- Grayscale says Bitcoin may bottom and could break the halving cycle with new highs in 2026.
- ETF outflows ease with four days of inflows, signaling buyer interest returning.
- Fed rate decisions and US crypto legislation may drive Bitcoin’s 2026 outlook.
Bitcoin’s latest retracement may already be stabilizing, with asset manager Grayscale arguing that the market is on track to break its traditional four-year halving cycle and could set fresh all-time highs in 2026.
Despite uncertainty following a 32% decline from recent peaks, emerging indicators suggest the current drawdown may be closer to a local bottom than the start of a prolonged downturn.
Market indicators point to a local bottom
According to Grayscale’s Monday research report, Bitcoin’s performance in 2025 has already shown characteristics that diverge from the typical post-halving trend.
The firm believes the long-held four-year cycle thesis is likely to prove incorrect and that Bitcoin may reach new highs next year.
One of the key signals cited is the elevated Bitcoin option skew, which has risen above 4.
This level indicates investors have already hedged extensively against additional downside, often a sign that selling pressure may be thinning out.
Grayscale argues that although the broader outlook remains uncertain, current dynamics support the case for a cyclical shift.
Still, analysts warn that a sustained recovery hinges on meaningful reversals in several major flow metrics.
These include futures open interest, ETF inflows, and selling activity from long-term Bitcoin holders—all of which have pressured prices in recent weeks.
ETF outflows ease as buyer appetite slowly returns
US spot Bitcoin ETFs, a major driver of the asset’s momentum throughout 2025, placed substantial downward pressure on the market in November.
The products recorded $3.48 billion in net outflows during their second-worst month on record, according to data from Farside Investors.
However, the trend has begun to reverse.
The funds have now posted four consecutive days of inflows, including a modest $8.5 million on Monday.
While early, the shift suggests investor interest may be gradually recovering following the recent sell-off.
Market positioning reflects what Nexo analyst Iliya Kalchev calls a “leverage reset rather than a sentiment break.”
He adds that the near-term trajectory depends on whether Bitcoin can reclaim the low-$90,000 range to avoid slipping toward stronger support in the mid-to-low $80,000 levels.
Fed policy and US crypto legislation emerging as key catalysts
Investors now turn to the next major macro catalyst: the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on December 10.
Markets currently assign an 87% probability to a 25-basis-point rate cut, sharply higher than the 63% odds priced in one month ago.
Grayscale notes that the Fed’s decision and its forward guidance could play an important role in shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory into 2026.
Later in the year, continued progress on US digital asset regulation may offer another catalyst.
Attention has focused on the Digital Asset Market Structure bill, which Grayscale says could help accelerate institutional adoption if it maintains bipartisan support ahead of the midterm elections.
Momentum began with the passage of the CLARITY Act in the House earlier this year, part of a broader Republican “crypto week” initiative.
Senate leaders from both parties have expressed interest in building on the legislation through the Responsible Financial Innovation Act, which aims to establish a clearer regulatory framework for digital asset markets.
The bill is under review in both the Senate Agriculture Committee and the Senate Banking Committee.
Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott has stated that lawmakers aim to finalize and sign the legislation into law by early 2026, a timeline that could align with what Grayscale sees as a pivotal year for Bitcoin’s next phase of growth.
