In today’s newsletter, Paul Veradittakit, managing partner at Pantera Capital, shares his 2026 predictions on crypto, real-world asset tokenization and AI.
Programming Note: This will be our last newsletter of 2025 — we look forward to seeing you all in 2026! We’re also selecting third party contributions for the coming year, so get in touch if you’re a global thought leader with research to share.
A heartfelt thank you to all of the contributors from this year and all our subscribers for being part of our newsletter. We look forward to 2026 — all signs indicate it’s going to be an exciting year in the digital asset space!
2026 Crypto Outlook: Real-World Assets, AI Security, and the Next IPO Wave
In 2025, a U.S. administration named a crypto czar, created a bitcoin strategic stockpile, formed a digital asset working group, and selected a new Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) chair that embraces innovation. In Congress, the GENIUS Act provided a clear stablecoin regulatory framework, facilitating a $100 billion increase in stablecoin demand.
Coinbase became the first crypto company added to the S&P 500, nine blockchain companies had an IPO, Robinhood launched tokenized stocks, and Vanguard lifted its ban on crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
On to 2026.
Real-world assets (RWA) take off
As of Dec. 15, 2025, the amount reached about 14% of Total Value Locked (TVL) at $16.6 billion out of a Decentralized Finance (DeFi TVL of $118 billion).
Predictions:
- Treasuries and private credit could at least double.
- Tokenized stocks and equities could grow even faster when the anticipated “Innovation Exemption” under the SEC’s “Project Crypto” debuts.
- One surprise sector (carbon credits, mineral rights, or energy projects) will catch fire. This sector will likely be characterized by fragmented liquidity, global distribution, and a lack of standards, which blockchain-based markets will help resolve.
AI revolutionizes on-chain security
AI security and blockchain development tools are getting scary good. Real-time fraud detection, 95% accurate transaction Bitcoin labeling, and instant smart-contract debugging are here, detecting millions in blockchain vulnerabilities.
Prediction: Picture bigger shifts toward on-chain intelligence with deterministic, verifiable rules taking over smart contract-based governance. The application will scan code in near real-time, spot logic bugs and exploits instantly, and give immediate debugging feedback. The next big unicorn will be an innovative onchain security firm that will 100x the safety game.
Prediction markets are acquisition targets
With $28 billion traded in 2025’s first 10 months, prediction markets are consolidating around institutional infrastructure. We hit an ATH the week of October 20 at $2.3 billion.
Prediction: A buyout in the industry of more than $1 billion, one that will not involve Polymarket or Kalshi. Winning platforms will build under-the-hood liquidity rails with baked-in market-discovery intelligence that points out where money is hiding and why. Forget shiny new buttons. It’s all about effortlessly giving users superpowers: instant access to hidden pools, smarter routing, and predictive order flow.
Sports-focused platforms like DraftKings and FanDuel have gone mainstream, partnering with media for real-time odds distribution. Newer entries like NoVig, focused on sports, will expand their presence vertically, and new startups will emerge in APAC, as that is a region to watch.
AI becomes your personal crypto co-pilot
Consumer AI platform usage will surge as systems mature, delivering hyper-personalized experiences that meet tailored expectations. Seamless integration makes advanced AI feel effortless, shifting usage from clunky to instant.
Prediction: Platforms like Surf.ai will engage people from crypto-curious individuals to active traders in 2026 via intuitive advanced AI models, proprietary crypto datasets, and multi-step workflow agents. I believe that sophisticated technology and accessible design positions Surf as the go-to crypto research tool, delivering instant, on-chain-backed market insights four times faster than generic options with other platforms of this type also emerging.
Bank titans gear up: G7-pegged stablecoin looms
A group of 10 major banks are in the early stages of exploring a consortium stablecoin issuance pegged to G7 currencies. The financial institutions are determining whether an industry-wide stablecoin would likely provide people and institutions with the benefits of digital currencies in compliant, risk-managed ways. Meanwhile, a group of ten European banks are investigating the issuance of a euro-pegged stablecoin.
Prediction: A consortium of major banks will release their own stablecoin (whether these pilot projects come to fruition in 2026 or a different consortium does).
Privacy, payments, perpetuals: the institutional trio
Privacy tech is booming in institutional usage with the transparency-secrecy combination of Zama, Canton, and other protocols although retail usage isn’t finding traction or scalability. Stablecoins sit at $310 billion today, more than doubling market cap since 2023, expanding for 25 months in a row. Perpetual swap contracts already make up ~78% of crypto derivative volume, and the gap keeps growing between perps and spot options.
Prediction: For privacy, the gap between institutional and retail will widen in 2026. Stablecoins will have a path to $2 trillion+ long-term, hitting at least $500 billion next year, and the momentum for perpetuals will continue in 2026.
The biggest crypto IPO year ever
2025 already had 335 U.S. IPOs, overall, an increase of 55% from 2024; many of those were crypto-friendly, including nine blockchain IPOs. This includes crypto-native ones like Circle Internet Group with a launch date of May 27, 2025 and crypto-inclusive ones like special-purpose acquisition companies (SPACS); Bitcoin Infrastructure Acquisition Corp, for example, launched on Dec. 2, 2025.
Prediction: 2026 will be an even bigger year for digital asset public listings. Coinbase says that 76% of companies plan to add tokenized assets in 2026 with some eyeing 5%+ of their entire portfolio. Morpho serves as an example protocol with its $8.6 billion TVL in November 2025.
The institutional macro view
As of December 15, 17.867% of bitcoin holdings now rest in the hands of publicly traded and private companies, ETFs, and countries. In 2026, crypto will be integrated into mainstream platforms, upgrade financial rails, and challenge current incumbents.
Prediction: 2026 won’t be about hype or memes. It will be about consolidation, real compliance, and the movement of institutional money, driven by public market liquidity.
– Paul Veradittakit, Managing Partner, Pantera Capital
