Long-term holder (LTH) supply reached a cyclical low on Nov. 21, the same day bitcoin bottomed out around $80,000. With the bitcoin price now back at $90,000, about 15% higher from the low, the data suggests that most spot-driven sell pressure has already washed through the market following the 36% peak to trough correction.
This trend has become a key narrative in 2025, since persistent spot selling has been the primary reason bitcoin has traded largely flat year-to-date.
Long-term holders are defined as entities that have held their coins for at least 155 days. As coins age from short-term holders into this cohort, long-term holder supply naturally increases.
The recent stabilization and early upturn suggest that the wave of distribution from these more seasoned holders is easing significantly, reducing structural sell pressure in the market.
Since the summer, long-term holders have reduced their holdings from 14,769,512 BTC in July to 14,330,128 BTC in November.
The previous two troughs in long-term holder supply occurred in April 2024 and March 2025. The April 2024 decline took place soon after bitcoin reached its all-time high of $73,000, which showed long-term holders were distributing into strength. The March 2025 low arrived during the correction driven by the Trump tariff concerns, which ultimately saw bitcoin bottom in April at roughly $76,000.
Looking across previous cycles, long-term holder supply typically sees sharp declines during the retail driven mania phases that accompany cycle peaks, most notably in 2017 and 2021.
This cycle, however, appears differently. Instead of a dramatic blow-off top followed by aggressive distribution, the pattern has been more measured, featuring steadier ebbs and flows. This indicates that market structure and holder behavior have evolved, which puts a dent in the four-year cycle structure as the onchain behaviour is different.
