Wall Street broker Bernstein is sticking with its most aggressive Coinbase (COIN) call on the Street, an outperform rating and a $510 price target, even as a market pullback and renewed bitcoin volatility have rattled sentiment across crypto-linked equities.
In a Monday note written by analysts led by Gautam Chhugani, the broker described the current setup as “fragile,” with choppy price action in crypto spilling into public-market proxies.
But the firm’s analysts argued this downturn doesn’t resemble prior crypto busts because the underlying businesses appear to be holding up, and the froth is more narrowly concentrated. Bernstein pointed to speculative excess largely confined to “MSTR copycats,” while depicting larger, scaled players as making more durable shifts in how they monetize the market.
For Coinbase, that shift is the core of the bullish thesis. The analysts said the exchange is working to reduce its dependence on spot trading by building an “everything exchange,” something closer to a full-stack financial platform than a single-product crypto venue.
The analysts noted that stablecoins have already become a significant contributor to Coinbase’s revenue, but investors often continue to view ancillary businesses, such as staking and custody, as just another form of crypto beta.
In Bernstein’s view, clearer U.S. regulatory rules are the key catalyst that could re-rate those lines, accelerate Coinbase’s expansion and narrow the advantage historically enjoyed by offshore rivals that listed tokens faster and captured fundraising-related fees.
The broker also said Coinbase is leaning further into token issuance through a launchpad-style approach, which could generate success-fee income while creating a flywheel: more issuances feeding more listings and, ultimately, higher trading activity. Bernstein cited Monad’s listing as evidence of demand for that model.
A key catalyst ahead
Another piece of the bullish case is a near-term product catalyst: Coinbase’s scheduled product showcase on Dec. 17, which Bernstein expects to highlight areas that extend the company beyond spot trading, including tokenized equities and prediction markets.
The firm also pointed to a growing push into derivatives, helped by Deribit, as a trend that could make Coinbase look increasingly similar to broker-dealers such as Robinhood (HOOD), with the two models converging as each adds more products traditionally associated with the other.
On the consumer side, the report flagged Coinbase’s Base app as a potential on-ramp that blends wallet functionality, payments and social features, with broader token access via onchain integrations.
Put together, the broker framed Coinbase’s strategy as a pivot from being primarily a spot-driven exchange to a broader distribution and services platform, one it believes can compound through regulation, new issuance and a widening product suite, even if near-term sentiment remains hostage to crypto volatility.
Coinbase shares were 3.7% higher at publication time, at $269.42, putting the potential upside to Bernstein’s price target at nearly 90%.
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