In brief
- Predictors are starting to lean bullish on Bitcoin again, favoring it to hit $100K before dumping to $69K.
- Coinbase purchased the rights to the UpOnly Podcast, but predictors don’t think CEO Brian Armstrong will be on Episode 1.
- Revolut is leaning into crypto, but odds of a stablecoin announcement before year’s end are dwindling.
While doom was permeating markets last week, crypto participants are a bit more cheerful with the passing of Thanksgiving and the beginnings of a market rally.
Bitcoin has jumped 7.4% in the last 7 days, reclaiming $91,000, but still sitting nearly 28% off its August all-time high. Where’s it headed next? Predictors on Myriad are starting to lean bullish.
We’ll look at just how bullish while investigating some of Myriad’s top markets this week.
(Disclaimer: Myriad Markets is a product of Decrypt’s parent company, Dastan.)
Bitcoin’s next move: Pump to $100K or dump to $69K
Market Open: November 5
Market Close: Open until resolution
Volume: $19.9K
Link: See the latest odds on the “Bitcoin’s next move: Pump to $100K or dump to $69K?” market on Myriad
Bitcoin’s near-term fate remains one of the most popular markets among Myriad predictors. This time, predictors are asked whether the top crypto asset’s next move will be a pump to $100K or dump to $69K.
BTC has been steadily gaining ground after a slide and liquidations sent it briefly below $82,000. After a 10% weekly rebound, predictors are leaning bullish, giving odds of a pump to $100,000 around a 74% chance as of Friday morning.
That marks around a 24% increase in odds for the pump since the market was created. Analysts have cited waning institutional interest and the uncertainty of Federal Reserve policy as reasons for the fall—but have we reached selling exhaustion?
Experts like Tom Lee, Chairman of BitMine Immersion Technologies, think the market has merely been resetting since the record-breaking $19 billion liquidations on October 10, and that BTC may still be in line for a new high before year-end.
Strategy’s Michael Saylor is predictably bullish for a year-end run, as well, saying last month that $150,000 is still in play before January.
Odds are shifting back in favor of a December rate cut, potentially offering a near-term catalyst as well.
Bitcoin will need to jump 9.8% to tip $100,000 once more. It will need to drop more than 24% to pay off more bearish predictors that think a drop to $69,000 is in store.
What’s Next? The FOMC meeting will take place on December 9-10, with odds of a rate cut improving to around 84%, according to Myriad predictors.
Will Brian Armstrong appear in the first episode of UpOnly?
Market Open: November 25
Market Close: Open until resolution
Volume: $702
Link: See the latest odds on the “Will Brian Armstrong appear on the first episode of UpOnly?” market on Myriad
Coinbase recently spent around $400 million to acquire Echo, a crypto fundraising platform founded by pseudonymous crypto personality Cobie, whose real name is Jordan Fish.
Part of the deal included a $25 million purchase of the UpOnly NFT, a token that granted the purchaser the rights to another season of the popular crypto podcast UpOnly, which stars Fish and another pseudonymous crypto personality, LedgerStatus.
The purchase comes with a few conditions, including the right for the UpOnly co-hosts to choose the guests of the show—though according to the NFT, they might “ask for some suggestions” if they like the purchaser.
Since Fish has been playing the role of Coinbase customer support on X, some may infer that he is on good enough terms with the NFT purchaser and acquirer of his firm. But is his newly created professional relationship enough to summon Brian Armstrong on the first episode of the UpOnly return?
That’s what predictors on Myriad are tasked with deciding. As of Friday morning, odds stand at nearly 60% “no,” with predictors leaning against preferential treatment that would thrust the Coinbase CEO into the guest seat for the first episode.
Fish has said that the show will commence when they’ve figured out all eight guests, but early guest ideas from the Echo founder did not include Armstrong.
Is that because it’s a given? Predictors think not.
What’s Next? No timetable for the show’s return has been announced.
Will Revolut announce the launch of its own stablecoin by the end of 2025?
Market Open: July 4
Market Close: December 31
Volume: $27.8K
Link: See the latest odds on the “Will Revolut announce its own stablecoin?” market on Myriad
Neobank giant Revolut has been cozying up with crypto lately, integrating Polygon to power stablecoin payments and remittances, and securing a Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) license from the Cyprus securities regulator.
The firm, which recently raised at around a $75 billion valuation, has offered crypto trading since as early as 2017 and this summer was rumored to be considering the launch of its own stablecoin.
Since that time, predictors on Myriad have been asked whether or not the firm will announce one by the end of the year.
In July, predictors briefly favored the chances of Revolut announcing a stablecoin launch. But for the bulk of the market’s existence, odds were strongly against the European fintech firm revealing a fiat-backed token, averaging around 75% “no,” until early October when odds moved to around a coinflip.
Reasons for a strong odds move are not immediately apparent, but around the time of the move, the firm did gain approval to establish a bank in Colombia, where it said it aims to offer a “portfolio of innovative financial products.”
But since that time, the market has slid back to favor no stablecoin announcement.
That’s despite the MiCA announcement, after which a lawyer that specializes in crypto regulation in the EU told Decrypt the launch of a Revolut stablecoin by 2026 was a “plausible” development.
But it becomes less plausible every day as the calendar turns, with predictors sliding odds another 4% this week to 86% “no.”
What’s Next? This market will close for predictions four hours before the year end.
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