In brief
- Predictors on Myriad do not expect a fresh Bitcoin all-time high to happen before June.
- They are also bearish on Ethereum’s next stop, flipping in recent days to favor a dump to $2,500.
- What’s next for Zcash? Predictors think a move to $550 will come before a drop to $250.
The start of a new calendar year initially sent a jolt of optimism through the crypto markets as tokens rebounded, led by Bitcoin eclipsing $94,000 and Ethereum nearing $3,300 earlier this week.
But the rally did not sustain its momentum and prices have since fallen—and in turn, predictors on Myriad have become more bearish on key crypto targets.
Below, we’ll look at some of this week’s top prediction markets on Myriad, including those centered on a new BTC all-time high, ETH’s next stop, and where Zcash may be headed as key developers depart to start their own company.
(Disclaimer: Myriad Markets is a product of Decrypt’s parent company, Dastan.)
New Bitcoin all-time high before July?
Market Open: January 1
Market Close: June 30
Volume: $9.81K
Link: See the latest odds on the “new BTC all-time high before July?” market on Myriad
Bitcoin topped $94,000 on Monday, hitting its highest price in a month. But the buzz didn’t last long, as BTC slipped below $90,000 on mounting liquidations just a few days later.
The price slide and BTC’s inability to sustain a strong rally upwards has traders on Myriad leaning bearish about its chances of making a new all-time high price before July.
As of Thursday, predictors give Bitcoin just a 21% chance of marching above $126,000 anytime before July.
That represents around a 6.5% drop in odds over the last week as time erodes with BTC still sitting 29% off its October high of $126,080.
Yet while predictors on Myriad remain bearish, some expert predictors have other opinions. In late December, Bitcoin billionaire and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said he expected that BTC would stay in a tight price range before exploding to $200,000 before March—easily clearing its current all-time high.
Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl told Decrypt he expects the asset to set a new all-time high in the first half of the year, as well.
Are analysts making the right call? Or is the wisdom with the crowd?
What’s Next? In the near-term, Bitcoin’s price may be sensitive to a decision at the next FOMC meeting, which will take place on January 27-28.
Ethereum’s next move: Pump to $4K or dump to $2.5K?
Market Open: November 5
Market Close: Open until resolution
Volume: $214K
Link: See the latest odds on the “Ethereum’s next move: Pump to $4K or dump to $2.5K?” market on Myriad
In one of Myriad’s longest-running markets, predictors are asked whether or not Ethereum will hit $4,000 or $2,500 first. Since November, the second-largest crypto asset by market cap has been ranging between the two figures—at one point coming within $200 of resolving to $2,500.
But after odds got as high as 81% in favor of a dump to $2,500 in November, they’ve since shifted and are now ranging alongside Ethereum’s price, flip-flopping frequently to favor either a pump or a dump.
As of Thursday, traders are slightly bearish, with around 53% in favor of a dump to $2,500. Those odds are about 18% higher than Tuesday when Ethereum had rallied to nearly $3,300, according to CoinGecko.
But like Bitcoin, Ethereum’s rally was short-lived, slipping alongside the broader market and dropping its weekly gain to just 3.5%. As it stands now, Ethereum is changing hands at $3,096—19% above the $2,500 mark that predictors favor.
Yet while traders give a slight lean towards $2,500, one of Ethereum’s loudest proponents, BitMine Chairman Tom Lee, said in December that the asset already bottomed. BitMine, the leading Ethereum treasury firm, continues to buy ETH with expectations that the price is headed far higher—perhaps as high as $250,000.
Will it hit $2,500 before the move up? Lee thinks not. Predictors think otherwise.
What’s Next? Much like Bitcoin, the next FOMC meeting may have a material impact on the price of Ethereum.
Zcash next move: Pump to $550 or Dump to $250?
Market Open: January 8
Market Close: Open until resolution
Volume: $907
Link: See the latest odds on the “Zcash next move: pump to $550 or dump to $250?” market on Myriad
While crypto majors floundered in the final months of last year, privacy-focused token Zcash (ZEC) gave traders something to talk about.
The asset has rallied more than 700% in the last year to recently change hands at $429, and briefly traded above $700 in early November. Despite the gains, it still sits 86.5% off its 2021 all-time high of $3,191.
Now predictors on Myriad are asked about its next stop—a jump to $550, or dump to $250?
The question is timely given a dramatic drop in the token’s price in the last 24 hours amid news that the entire team at Electric Capital Company, which created and contributed to ZCash’s privacy development, left following a governance dispute with a nonprofit in the ZEC ecosystem and are creating a new company to continue working.
As news of the dispute hit social media, ZEC began to fall and has now dropped more than 9%, at one point falling as low as $384 before rebounding.
But is the price drop warranted? Helius Labs CEO and outspoken Zcash proponent Mert Mumtaz called the drop an emotional reaction and a misunderstanding.
“The simplest way to think of this is a startup or a tech company can actually work and ship and scale, but a non-profit necessarily cannot,” said Mumtaz on the Fomo Hour show about the developers spinning up their own firm, reiterating that the team remains fully committed to ZCash.
Predictors on the new market favor a jump up to $550 at 62%, a jump up from an even split earlier in the day. At its current trading price of $430, ZEC would need to jump 28% to hit $550. To hit $250, it would need to drop around 42%.
What’s Next? This market will remain open until resolution.
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