In brief
- Prices are falling and predictors on Myriad are shifting their predictions to the bearish side of crypto markets.
- Predictors are now overwhelmingly of the belief that Solana will not hit a new all-time high before year end.
- They also now think gold will beat Ethereum to $5,000, following ETH’s recent slide.
Crypto is sliding once more, with Bitcoin diving below the $100,000 level on Thursday. The consistent and ranging price action of the largest crypto asset is also creating a strain on other major peers, like Ethereum and Solana.
That’s led to more bearish predictions from users of Myriad’s prediction markets over the course of the last week, once more leading to more dramatic odds shifts as uncertainty permeates the market.
Here’s a look at some of the most interesting moves from the past week.
(Disclaimer: Myriad Markets is a product of Decrypt’s parent company, DASTAN.)
Gold versus ETH: Which hits $5K first?
Market Open: October 15
Market Close: Open until resolution
Volume: $74K
Link: See the latest odds on the “Gold versus ETH: Which hits $5K first?” market on Myriad
While gold is typically compared to Bitcoin, given the coin’s “digital gold” narrative, predictors on Myriad are being asked whether or not the top commodity will reach $5,000 before Ethereum, the second-largest crypto asset by market capitalization.
Predictors long favored ETH in this market, perhaps due to its potentially more volatile upward mobility, but they’ve become less confident as crypto markets slide.
ETH has fallen even further from its August all-time high near $5,000, now changing hands at $3,181, or about 57% away from the $5,000 mark. That drop led to predictors moving odds to flip the odds as of Thursday afternoon, making gold the favorite to hit $5,000 first at 51.4%.
Just two weeks ago, though, ETH was around a 76% favorite for predictors as gold began to cool off. But gold’s price is once more rising, gaining around 3% in the last week to trade at $4,173—just 20% off the $5,000 mark.
Despite spot activity showcasing some ETH institutional interest, and BitMine Immersion Technologies buying billions to lead publicly traded ETH treasuries, technical analysis still suggests lower is the more likely side in the near-term for ETH.
What’s Next? Gold is holding strong despite broader markets falling further. Can ETH catch up?
New Solana all-time high by end of year?
Market Open: August 6
Market Close: December 30
Volume: $232K
Link: See the latest odds on the “Another Solana all-time high by end of year?” market on Myriad
Solana frenzy reached a fever pitch earlier this year when President Donald Trump launched his official meme coin on the blockchain. SOL, the network’s underlying token, then hit a new all-time high of $293.31.
But since that time, Solana has sputtered, dropping nearly 52% to now change hands at $141.63.
With its further slide on Thursday, predictors on Myriad have become increasingly bearish on its ability to reach a new all-time high by the end of year.
Predictors give SOL just an 10.4% chance of making a new all-time mark in the next weeks before 2026 rolls around.
Odds in favor of a new all-time high are now down around 46% in the last month, dropping from 56% on October 10 to today’s mark. In September, odds were as high as 65% in favor of a new high.
The slide comes amid a positive catalyst for Solana, as SOL ETFs have hit the market to a strong appetite from institutional investors. The ETFs and buy pressure from Solana digital asset treasuries were supposed to result in an “epic” end of year-run.
But right now, predictors think it’s unlikely.
What’s Next? An end to the government shutdown or more certainty on a December rate cut could be a near-term catalyst for broader markets.
Exactly two Fed rate changes in 2025?
Market Open: August 31
Market Close: December 29
Volume: $33.9K
Link: See the latest odds on the “Exactly two Fed rate changes in 2025?” market on Myriad
Traders briefly rejoiced when Jerome Powell and the Fed cut rates in October, dropping interest rates another 0.25%. But Bitcoin and Ethereum actually tumbled amid the news, particularly given Powell’s commentary that another rate cut in December was “not a foregone conclusion.”
That tone has helped dramatically shift the odds of Myriad’s market, which asks users whether or not the Fed will complete “exactly two” rate changes in 2025.
Given that the Fed cut rates at both its September and October meetings, a December skip would resolve the market to “yes.”
For the better part of the market’s existence, “no” has been favored as predictors believed a third rate cut would definitely happen in December. But as that potential likelihood has become less clear, predictors have shifted odds to 45% “yes,” an increase of about 16% in the last week in total and more than 20% in the last few days.
Data blackouts due to the government shutdown have created a cloudier understanding of the macro environment as well, potentially hindering the Fed’s ability to make a policy decision as the year draws to a close.
Will “Mr. Too Late” Jerome Powell, as President Trump has called him, wait even longer to make another cut? Predictors are wary.
What’s Next? The next FOMC meeting will be held on December 9 and 10.
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