For months now, bitcoin has followed a frustratingly familiar pattern for the bulls: seemingly over-correlated with the Nasdaq 100 when that stock gauge headed lower, but losing nearly all correlation when the leading tech index moved higher.
This week proved no different, with the Nasdaq tumbling on 2% on Thursday and bitcoin plunging twice as much. Friday then brought a modest rally for tech stocks, one that bitcoin didn’t come close to matching.
Headed into the last 6 six weeks of 2025, year-to-date gains for the Nasdaq 100 now stand at 20%, while bitcoin is barely in the green, up just 3%.
A reflection of asymmetry
What’s happening, according to a report this week from Wintermute’s Jasper De Maere, is not a loss of correlation with the Nasdaq 100, which remains high at about 0.8.
“This isn’t a breakdown of correlation, but a reflection of asymmetry, the uneven way BTC responds to risk,” said De Maere. “When equities rally, BTC’s reaction is muted. When they sell off, BTC tends to move more sharply in the same direction.”
De Maere measures this through “performance skew,” with “positive skew” being bitcoin outperforming in a risk-on environment and “negative skew” being bitcoin lagging in a risk-off environment.
It will be no shock to anyone paying attention that skew has been solidly negative for some time.
Attempting to put a number on it, Da Maere charted the percentage of days on a 365-day rolling basis in which BTC has seen positive performance skew versus the Nasdaq.
What he found is that it’s fallen to levels not seen since the bottom of the last major bear market in late 2022.
Why so bad? Da Maere suggests a loss of mindshare for bitcoin as both institutional and retail speculative appetites have been quite satisfied in stocks. There are also liquidity issues as ETF inflows have slowed, stablecoin issuance has plateaued and market depth across exchanges still remains below early 2024 levels.
Hopeful outlook
“Historically, this kind of negative asymmetry doesn’t appear near tops but rather shows up near bottoms,” concluded Da Maere. “When BTC falls harder on bad equity days than it rises on good ones, it usually signals exhaustion, not strength.”
“The current BTC/Nasdaq performance skew suggests that BTC investors are somewhat exhausted and have been for a while.”
