In brief
- Legislation was reintroduced to tighten rules around prediction markets in New York.
- It would ban people from speculating on death, as well as individual athletic events.
- Polymarket’s odds will be featured at Madison Square Garden under a new deal.
New York Assemblyman Clyde Vanel reintroduced legislation on Wednesday that would restrict prediction markets in one of the country’s most populous states—a day before Polymarket clinched a deal with the New York Rangers, the professional ice hockey team.
Under the ORACLE Act, which was first introduced in November, companies like Polymarket would be prohibited from offering event contracts that hinge on the outcome of specific games, such as Thursday’s scheduled faceoff between the Rangers and Buffalo Sabers.
The legislation would still allow prediction markets to field bets on the outcomes of tournaments, such as who could be next to win the Stanley Cup. However, the legislation would ban “prop betting” focused on specific events or player performances within individual games.
Although the legislation would also ban prediction markets on political outcomes, “catastrophic events” like war and mass shootings, and the lifespan of individuals, the proposed rules strike at one of prediction markets’ biggest money-makers in 2025: sports betting.
Last week, for example, sports accounted for 37% of Polymarket’s notional trading volume, according to a Dune analytics dashboard. For Kalshi, which powers prediction market offerings for Coinbase and Robinhood, sports accounted for a whopping 93% of notional trading volume. That amounted to $2.3 billion across both companies when combined.
On Thursday, Polymarket became the Rangers’ “exclusive prediction markets partner,” allowing the firm to display odds during games at Madison Square Garden. The deal was unveiled in a press release by publicly traded Madison Square Garden Sports.
The company said that Polymarket will be featured through LED signage, “digitally enhanced dasherboard signage” marking an hockey rink’s perimeter, and a dedicated post-game segment. Polymarket’s branding will also be featured on the outside of the company’s storied stadium in Manhattan, MSG Sports added.
Advocates argue that prediction markets produce more accurate forecasts than experts or traditional polls by gauging “the wisdom of the crowd,” but critics contend that most are delicately disguised gambling platforms lacking consumer protections.
Under Vanel’s legislation, prediction markets would be required to have features allowing people to voluntarily ban themselves or limit the amount of time that they spend gambling. The bill would also enforce age restrictions, while preventing people from betting using credit cards.
If prediction markets continue to operate in the Empire State after receiving a court order to stop, they would be fined $1 million for every day that they keep functioning in the area. Other violations of the ORACLE Act would entail civil penalties as little as $10,000.
In April, Vanel proposed a bill that would direct the New York State Board of Elections to study how blockchain technology could be used to protect voter records and election results.
Earlier this week, U.S. Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-NY) introduced a bill that would prohibit federal employees from using prediction markets when in possession of relevant insider knowledge. That followed suspicious bets on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s ouster.
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