The record-long U.S. government shutdown appears to be in its final stretch, with prediction markets signaling overwhelming confidence that a deal will clear Congress within days.
On Polymarket, traders now assign a 96% probability that the government reopens between November 12 and 15, aligning with the expected House vote on the Senate’s bipartisan funding bill.
Over on Kalshi, contracts tied to the duration of the shutdown have seen similar momentum, with traders pricing in an end within the next 72 hours as confidence surged following the Senate’s 60–40 vote to fund the government through January 30.
The jump in odds followed a decisive shift in Washington over the weekend.
Seven Senate Democrats broke ranks to join Republicans in advancing a bill that reverses mass federal layoffs, restores back pay and food assistance, and keeps federal agencies running but leaves one politically explosive issue unresolved: the expiring Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies, which help lower monthly insurance premiums for millions.
December vote on subsidies
Even some of Trump’s allies are pushing back. Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene accused party leaders of “having no plan” to address potential doubling of premiums if subsidies lapse, while a bloc of endangered House Republicans has urged Speaker Mike Johnson to act before year’s end. Johnson has yet to commit to a vote on ACA relief, though he pledged to hold “a deliberative process” after the government reopens.
A December Senate vote on the subsidies is part of the shutdown deal, but passage remains uncertain.
If prediction markets are right, the government could reopen by Nov. 14, once the House passes the funding bill and Trump signs it. But as Kalshi and Polymarket traders lock in profits at the end of the shutdown, both parties are still gambling on a far tougher question: who gets blamed for it.
Midterm betting
And if the results of next year’s midterm elections are the blame game, prediction markets are already keeping score.
On Polymarket, traders give Republicans a 44% chance of holding the Senate while losing the House, a split outcome that implies voters may punish both parties for Washington’s dysfunction.
Odds of a Democratic sweep and a Republican sweep are tied at roughly 27% each, suggesting neither side has managed to turn the shutdown into political capital.
