Global investment management firm VanEck is confident that the first three months of the year will be a risk-on environment for investors, citing clarity around fiscal policy, monetary direction, and major investment themes.
“As we move into 2026, markets are operating in an environment with something investors have not had in years: visibility,” stated VanEck in a Q1 2026 Outlook on Tuesday.
However, regarding Bitcoin (BTC), it stated that the typical four-year cycle “broke in 2025, complicating short-term signals.”
“This divergence supports a more cautious near-term outlook over the next 3–6 months,” it stated, noting that this outlook was not unanimous, with some company executives “remaining more constructive on the immediate cycle.”
A risk-on outlook is generally good news for riskier investments such as AI and tech stocks, and crypto. However, Bitcoin has decoupled from stock and gold markets in recent months following the massive deleveraging event in October.
Fewer fiscal and monetary surprises ahead
“One of the most important developments for markets is the gradual improvement in the US fiscal picture,” VanEck stated.
“While deficits remain elevated, they are shrinking as a percentage of GDP from the historic highs reached during the COVID period,” they continued to explain.
“This fiscal stabilization is helping anchor longer-term interest rates and reduce tail risks.”
Related: What the Fed’s divided 2026 outlook means for Bitcoin and crypto
The VanEck outlook is more medium-term than focused on immediate events, Justin d’Anethan, head of research at Arctic Digital, told Cointelegraph.
“One can’t help but look at price action, which often is its own narrative as confirmation,” he said, adding:
“With BTC rising in a low-leverage environment, it feels like a lot of last year’s fluff was taken out, leaving bulls a tad more realistic, and bears tamed in their apocalyptic prophecies. We see a lot of indicators in deep oversold territory, edging to get back up.”
“While conflict with the US administration and the Fed might not help things, geopolitical uncertainty and a broadly bullish sentiment on risk assets seem to bode well for crypto, as it plays catch-up,” he added.
Market trajectory for H1 2026 is relatively clear
Meanwhile, HashKey Group senior researcher Tim Sun told Cointelegraph that following the fluctuations and adjustments in late 2025, the market trajectory for the first half of 2026 has become relatively clear.
“With the US midterm elections approaching, both fiscal and financial conditions are expected to further favor risk assets,” he said.
“Fiscal stimulus, accommodative monetary conditions, and favorable regulatory developments collectively form a classic risk‑on macroeconomic window in the first half of 2026. In such an environment, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market stand to benefit.”
Crypto investor Will Clemente commented that “this environment is literally what Bitcoin was created for.”
“The President is coming after the Fed chair. Metals are ripping as sovereigns diversify reserves. Stocks and risk assets are at record highs. Geopolitical risk is rising.”
Analyst tips Bitcoin to go back to six figures
MN Fund founder and crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe is confident that BTC prices will reclaim six figures before the end of January.
There has been no dip below the 21-day moving average with “buyers stepping in to accumulate Bitcoin at these regions,” he said on Monday.
“Given the fact that the markets have hung in this range for such a long time, it shows the significance of the potential breakout levels,” he stated before predicting that a clear move above $92,000 will result in $100,000 in a maximum of ten days.
BTC had tapped the $92,000 level at the time of writing early Tuesday morning in Asia after a dip to the low $90,000 area on Monday.
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